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Prediction for CME (2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-20T14:42Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24321/-1
CME Note: Bright, wide and asymmetrical shape CME seen to the NE in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The eruption is characterized by an erupting sigmoid/S-shaped structure centered around N27E20, though dimming and an EUV wave signature is limited to longitudes closer to 30-50 degrees east. On arrival signature from Tarik Salman, LASSOS: background solar wind is quite different from normal levels with higher density (normal density around 5/cc) and speed (normal speed around 350-400 km/s)-a possible reason for this ICME not to have an associated shock. The start of the magnetic flux rope likely coincides with the enhancement in the total field and drop in density and the end of it is around 2023-04-24T09Z (based on an increase in temperature beyond this point and the field components becoming less coherent)
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T09:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T17:44Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-03-20T17:26:27Z
## Message ID: 20230320-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2023-03-20T14:42Z.

Estimated speed: ~749 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -40/27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Lucy (minor impact).  The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2023-03-25T22:16Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-03-21T22:07Z, STEREO A at 2023-03-23T11:42Z, and Lucy at 2023-03-25T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-03-23T17:44Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230320_194100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif


## Notes: 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 63.73 hour(s)
Difference: -8.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-03-20T17:26Z
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